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PHE- Medicaid disenrollment is happening faster than anyone thought, says former Medicaid deputy director

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: Its almost as if some states don’t want to pay billions of dollars for ineligible members. Cue outrage and pearl-clutching. But a large technology company wants you to care.

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/medicaid-disenrollment-happening-faster-anyone-thought-says-former-medicaid-deputy-director

“If I were a hospital administrator right now, I’d have a tent outside of every entrance, (asking) do you know if you’re still covered?” 

 
 

Karen Shields is chief client engagement officer at Gainwell Technologies.

Photo: Courtesy Gainwell Technologies

The loss of coverage for Medicaid recipients is happening faster than anyone believed it would, according to Karen Shields, chief client engagement officer at Gainwell Technologies, a large payer of Medicaid claims.

“It’s faster than we thought,” said Shields, a former deputy director for the Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services. “The call for action indicates everything thinks it’s faster.” 

The call to action is in the form of a letter sent earlier this month by Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to governors urging them to adopt new flexibilities to minimize avoidable Medicaid coverage losses.

“The lessons learned that I took with me from my time (at CMS), being responsible for enrollment and predicting human behavior, … is that it’s hard to get people to pay attention to pay health insurance,” Shields said. “It’s because it’s not their top priority if they’re not currently sick or in pain. Insurance in general is a negative buy.” 

Not all states publicly release numbers on coverage losses. Since states began Medicaid redeterminations on April 1, over one million people in the 21 states that have reported had been disenrolled from Medicaid as of June 14, according to KFF.

The entire health and social services community must be involved in raising awareness for those who have lost coverage, to reapply within a 90-day window of opportunity to see if they still qualify for Medicaid, Shields said.

Many Medicaid recipients may not have broadband access, but most have cell phone service. A recent change in Federal Communications Commission policy allows health plans to reach out to them by text. In January, the FCC’s Consumer and Governmental Affair Bureau issued a Declaratory Ruling responding to a letter from HHS Secretary Becerra regarding government Medicaid enrollment calls and text messages.

“We can’t rely on CMS or Medicaid to do it alone,” Shields said. “The bottom line is, the level of community public awareness has to be at an all-time high. If I were a hospital administrator right now, I’d have a tent outside of every entrance, (asking) do you know if you’re still covered?”

Twitter: @SusanJMorse
Email the writer: SMorse@himss.org

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PHE – More than 1 million dropped from Medicaid as states start post-pandemic purge of rolls

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: 1 million out of the 23M added= 4.3%. So far 95.7% of the Medicaid expansion aka the “PHE” remains in place. Math.

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.philasun.com/week-in-review/more-than-1-million-dropped-from-medicaid-as-states-start-post-pandemic-purge-of-rolls/

 
 

ABOVE PHOTO: Samantha Richards looks over her Medicaid papers, Friday, June 9, 2023, in Bloomington, Ind. Richards has been on Medicaid her whole life and currently works two part-time jobs as a custodian. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

By David A. Lieb and Andrew DeMillo

ASSOCIATED PRESS

More than 1 million people have been dropped from Medicaid in the past couple months as some states moved swiftly to halt health care coverage following the end of the coronavirus pandemic.

Most got dropped for not filling out paperwork.

Though the eligibility review is required by the federal government, President’s Joe Biden’s administration isn’t too pleased at how efficiently some other states are accomplishing the task.“Pushing through things and rushing it will lead  to eligible people — kids and families — losing coverage for some period of time,” Daniel Tsai, a top federal Medicaid official recently told reporters.

Already, about 1.5 million people have been removed from Medicaid in more than two dozen states that started the process in April or May, according to publicly available reports and data obtained by The Associated Press.

Florida has dropped several hundred thousand people, by far the most among states. The drop rate also has been particularly high in other states. For people whose cases were decided in May, around half or more got dropped in Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and West Virginia.

By its own count, Arkansas has dropped more than 140,000 people from Medicaid.

The eligibility redeterminations have created headaches for Jennifer Mojica, 28, who was told in April that she no longer qualified for Medicaid because Arkansas had incorrectly determined her income was above the limit.

She got that resolved but was then told her 5-year-old son was being dropped from Medicaid because she had requested his cancellation — something that never happened, she said. Her son’s coverage has been restored, but now Mojica says she’s been told her husband no longer qualifies. The uncertainty has been frustrating, she said.

“It was like fixing one thing and then another problem came up, and they fixed it and then something else came up,” Mojica said.

Arkansas officials said they have tried to renew coverage automatically for as many people as possible and placed a special emphasis on reaching families with children. But a 2021 state law requires the post-pandemic eligibility redeterminations to be completed in six months, and the state will continue “to swiftly disenroll individuals who are no longer eligible,” the Department of Human Services said in a statement.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has dismissed criticism of the state’s process.

Those who do not qualify for Medicaid are taking resources from those who need them,” Sanders said on Twitter last month. “But the pandemic is over — and we are leading the way back to normalcy.”

More than 93 million people nationwide were enrolled in Medicaid as of the most recent available data in February — up nearly one-third from the pre-pandemic total in January 2020. The rolls swelled because federal law prohibited states from removing people from Medicaid during the health emergency in exchange for providing states with increased funding.

Now that eligibility reviews have resumed, states have begun plowing through a backlog of cases to determine whether people’s income or life circumstances have changed. States have a year to complete the process. But tracking down responses from everyone has proved difficult, because some people have moved, changed contact information, or disregarded mailings about the renewal process.

Before dropping people from Medicaid, the Florida Department of Children and Families said it makes between five and 13 contact attempts, including texts, emails, and phone calls. Yet the department said 152,600 people have been non-responsive.

Their coverage could be restored retroactively, if people submit information showing their eligibility up to 90 days after their deadline.

Unlike some states, Idaho continued to evaluate people’s Medicaid eligibility during the pandemic even though it didn’t remove anyone. When the enrollment freeze ended in April, Idaho started processing those cases — dropping nearly 67,000 of the 92,000 people whose cases have been decided so far.

“I think there’s still a lot of confusion among families on what’s happening,” said Hillarie Hagen, a health policy associate at the nonprofit Idaho Voices for Children.

She added, “We’re likely to see people showing up at a doctor’s office in the coming months not knowing they’ve lost Medicaid.”

Advocates fear that many households losing coverage may include children who are actually still eligible, because Medicaid covers children at higher income levels than their parents or guardians. A report last year by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services forecast that children would be disproportionately impacted, with more than half of those disenrolled still actually eligible.

That’s difficult to confirm, however, because the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services doesn’t require states to report a demographic breakdown of those dropped. In fact, CMS has yet to release any state-by-state data. The AP obtained data directly from states and from other groups that have been collecting it.

Medicaid recipients in numerous states have described the eligibility redetermination process as frustrating.

Julie Talamo, of Port Richey, Florida, said she called state officials every day for weeks, spending hours on hold, when she was trying to ensure her 19-year-old special-needs son, Thomas, was going to stay on Medicaid.

She knew her own coverage would end but was shocked to hear Thomas’ coverage would be whittled down to a different program that could force her family to pay $2,000 per month. Eventually, an activist put Talamo in contact with a senior state healthcare official who confirmed her son would stay on Medicaid.

“This system was designed to fail people,” Talamo said of the haphazard process.

Some states haven’t been able to complete all the eligibility determinations that are due each month. Pennsylvania reported more than 100,000 incomplete cases in both April and May. Tens of thousands of cases also remained incomplete in April or May in Arizona, Arkansas, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio.

“If states are already behind in processing renewals, that’s going to snowball over time,” said Tricia Brooks, a research professor at the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families. “Once they get piles of stuff that haven’t been processed, I don’t see how they catch up easily.”

Among those still hanging in the balance is Gary Rush, 67, who said he was notified in April that he would lose Medicaid coverage. The Pittsburgh resident said he was told that his retirement accounts make him ineligible, even though he said he doesn’t draw from them. Rush appealed with the help of an advocacy group and, at a hearing this past week, was told he has until July to get rid of about $60,000 in savings.

Still, Rush said he doesn’t know what he will do if he loses coverage for his diabetes medication, which costs about $700 a month. Rush said he gets $1,100 a month from Social Security.

In Indiana, Samantha Richards, 35, said she has been on Medicaid her whole life and currently works two part-time jobs as a custodian. Richards recalled receiving a letter earlier this year indicating that the pandemic-era Medicaid protection was ending. She said a local advocacy group helped her navigate the renewal process. But she remains uneasy.

“Medicaid can be a little unpredictable,” Richards said. “There is still that concern that just out of nowhere, I will either get a letter saying that we have to reapply because we missed some paperwork, or I missed a deadline, or I’m going to show up at the doctor’s office or the pharmacy and they’re going to say, ‘Your insurance didn’t go through.'”

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MH/SA- Many Medicaid patients lack access to opioid addiction treatment

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: Hey “advocates” – can we use some of that “free” Medicaid expansion money to deal with this? What’s that? Expansion money is not for the hard problems but for soft-ball rate cells only? My bad.

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/opioid-addiction-treatment-access-2/

 
 

An estimated 82,998 people died from opioid overdoses in the U.S. last year. A new study published Friday in JAMA Health Forum drives home how lack of access to lifesaving medications could contribute to these preventable deaths.

The study is the most comprehensive Medicaid analysis of opioid addiction to date, analyzing a national claims dataset with 76 million patient data points between 2016 and 2018. Medicaid patients are already at disproportionate risk of opioid overdoses, almost four times higher than patients on commercial insurance. Correspondingly, Medicaid is one of the primary payers of opioid addiction treatment in the U.S., covering nearly 40% of adults under 65 with this chronic disease.

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“It’s a vulnerable slice of the population,” said Elizabeth Armstrong, an assistant professor of social work at the University of Maine, who was not involved with the study. “People’s socioeconomic status, as well as access to secure and stable housing, food security, mental health issues; these are all challenges that tend to cluster together.”

But insurance coverage doesn’t automatically mean that patients have access to treatments like methadone, buprenorphine, or naltrexone — the three FDA-approved medications for treating opioid addiction. Both methadone and buprenorphine activate opioid receptors at safer levels to reduce cravings and are associated with a reduced risk of death. Overall, the study found that 55% of Medicaid enrollees with opioid addiction received some medication treatment nationwide.

In New England, around 75%-80% of these patients received medication treatment. But in the majority of states in the Midwest and South, fewer than 40% of Medicaid patients diagnosed with opioid addiction received medication. “The variability suggests quality of care problems,” said Dennis McCarty, a study co-author and professor emeritus of public health at Oregon Health and Science University. “It reveals lost opportunities to intervene.”

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The authors also revealed significant disparities in treatment access within states. For example, while West Virginia as a whole had an above-average opioid addiction treatment rate of nearly 70%, treatment rates by county ranged from 23% to 82%. Right in the middle was Cabell County with a treatment rate of 64%, infamous for being the epicenter of the opioid epidemic, with 81 million prescription pain pills flooding the region over eight years. In 2018, Cabell County had the highest opioid overdose death rate in the state.

Patrick Marshalek, an associate professor of behavioral medicine and psychiatry at West Virginia University who was not involved with the study, said that while the findings are intriguing, it’s equivalent to “the first shot of a grainy video” — meaning that it’s not yet clear how to interpret some results. For example, across the study period, states varied widely in their coverage of methadone treatment, reimbursement rates, and whether or not they expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, making it difficult to directly compare state medication rates or extract lessons.

As one example, the study found that 83% of patients with opioid addiction in Maine received medication treatment — the highest rate of any state. But Armstrong thinks this may simply be because Maine hadn’t expanded Medicaid at the time, meaning that the state was insuring a much smaller patient population. “So there may have been less of a disjuncture between the population seeking treatment and the availability of treatment for that study period.”

Health economist Stephan Lindner, the lead author of this study and an associate professor of emergency medicine at Oregon Health and Science University, also noted that the research team wasn’t able to analyze race or ethnicity due to data quality concerns. But given well-known demographic disparities in opioid addiction treatment access, Armstrong suggests that Maine’s relatively homogenous population — about 94% of residents are white — could also help explain the state’s high medication rates.

The most pressing question is what can states do to close treatment disparities. “We fail people by not providing adequate treatment to people with opioid use disorder enrolled in Medicaid,” said Lindner.

Marshalek points to telemedicine as one powerful way to expand access to opioid addiction treatment, especially given that many regulatory barriers were relaxed during the Covid-19 pandemic and may soon become permanent.

Marshalek also said that West Virginia’s hub-and-spoke model serves as an example of how to expand access: Rather than expecting patients to drive hours to the main hospital in order to get medications, experts at WVU’s hub in Morgantown train doctors in primary care clinics and federally qualified health centers across the state to help them distribute opioid addiction treatment within their own communities.

On a similar note, Armstrong recommends providing opioid addiction care within school clinics and expanding access to non-students and family members, given that Medicaid already pays for school-based behavioral health services. In the long term, however, Armstrong says that the U.S. needs more people empowered to provide integrated behavioral health care, which is why she directs the Professional Opioid Workforce Response Program to train social workers in opioid addiction and create a network of providers across Maine.

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Lindner also emphasized the need for further research. By using Medicaid claims data, the study is inevitably unable to capture patients who have not interacted with the health care system. “They are flying under the radar, but, very importantly, they’re still there,” said Lindner, “and eventually they’re going to show up in the overdoses.”

Ultimately, combining various streams of data — including Medicaid claims, overdose fatalities, national surveys, and first responder data — could provide greater clarity about the human toll of opioid addiction.  From hopelessness to isolation to despair, “there’s a fire burning with this addiction epidemic,” Marshalek said, “and it’s really not that discriminating when it comes to looking for fuel.”

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OP/ED- An Idaho Without Medicaid

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: In which the opiner opines the unthinkable.

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://idahofreedom.org/an-idaho-without-medicaid/

 
 

 
 

 
 

Counterfactuals are hard to contemplate. What would the world be like if we never did X? Or, what if we had done Y, instead? In the classic movie, “It’s a Wonderful Life,” the main character, George Bailey, gets a glimpse of how his community would have fared had he never been born.  The experience is an eye-opener for him; it shows him his amazing influence and how he is a blessing to those around him. George learns the world is better with him in it than without him.

Is government medical welfare –  Medicaid — like George Bailey? Is Idaho’s world better with Medicaid in it? Let’s do a similar thought experiment. What would Idaho be like if we did not participate in Medicaid — one of the most expensive and least effective welfare programs ever devised? 

We must first recognize that programs (Medicaid) are costly, but people (George Bailey) are productive.  Most people produce more than they consume, while the government must feed off the productive sector to survive. The prosperity of a free people creates the capacity–and the incentives–for people to produce and then help their fellow man. The parasitic nature of government lacks the capacity on its own to promote the general welfare and therefore requires compulsory taxation. Thus, government programs, by their nature, are inferior to people.

The Idaho Freedom Foundation has extensively chronicled the beast and the burden that President Johnson’s Great Society program of Medicaid has become for Idaho.  As of 2023, 432,804 individuals are on Medicaid rolls, according to the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare, and the Legislature has appropriated a total Medicaid budget of nearly $4.68 billion for the coming fiscal year. We spend more than $10,000 per year for each person on Medicaid. Medicaid is enormous, with coverage exceeding 22% of Idaho’s population and consuming over 32% of government spending. The program  has been in place since 1966 and has done nothing to solve long-term poverty issues in the state.

No federal law  requires Idaho, or any state for that matter, to administer a Medicaid program. It’s completely optional. The last state to join Medicaid was Arizona, which did so in the 1980s. It’s clear that getting rid of the Medicaid behemoth would save the state (and the nation) billions of dollars from the start.  We will hear the cries immediately: “You don’t care about people, about kids. They will be dying in the streets for lack of health insurance assistance and the health care coming with it.” Is this a truly serious concern, though?

For a close comparison, The Washington Post reported in 2012 on how the U.S. might work without Medicare, a separate program for old age health insurance assistance.  Remember, the report spoke to the cost of medical insurance for seniors (Medicare), not for the poor (Medicaid).The Post report focused on two concerns. One was that medical care and insurance will become exceedingly expensive for those on fixed incomes. The other was that the elderly, more than other demographic groups,  need more health care because of their old age and its related health problems.   

The two concerns of seniors  — the cost for those on fixed incomes and the increased need for health care — don’t necessarily exist for many in the Medicaid population, who have more work opportunities and who have fewer health problems because of their younger age (and we could still manage to help the disabled and children without requiring the full Medicaid bureaucracy). 

Ending Medicaid is much less problematic than ending Medicare. Seniors do have more limitations on their ability to earn income, and they do have more health care needs. Top that with the fact that seniors have paid Medicare taxes their entire lives, and there are compelling philosophical problems with ending Medicare, at least as it applies to people who have been taxed for the program their whole lives. Some seniors do receive indigent support through Medicaid now (about 27,000), but ending Medicaid could include other options for them such as a more robust Medicare system for long term care and/or more family and community care responsibilities for their well-being.  In short, there are far fewer obstacles to ending Medicaid.

Prior to 1965, and the advent of state-run health insurance for the poor, medical insurance and care came largely from state policies via public assistance but more directly from communities and churches. There is scant evidence of “people dying in the streets for lack of health insurance or healthcare.” Quite the opposite, America has a history of being one of the most charitable countries on the planet.

According to the Charities Aid Foundation annual report,
World Giving Index 2022
, the U.S. is the third most charitable country overall. We are in the top ten of all countries in the report’s three main measures of charity: helping a stranger, donating money, and volunteering time.
  Imagine the charitable waterfalls that would be created if billions of dollars in Idaho were returned to individuals (from government) stoking their proclivities to help others. Churches, medical centers, communities, families, and individual benefactors would be better equipped to exercise their generosity and caring for others. Those private entities existed before Medicaid came into being. Where are they now? 

Let’s not forget how government “caring” often crowds out private charity. Knowing a government program exists, can make us complacent in helping others. We don’t leave our friends and neighbors to die in the streets. Instead we respond to incentives and to what our resources limit us to. Many of us will probably be more willing and ready to help when we know there isn’t a government safety net — in other words, when the caring responsibilities fall on us rather than a government program. 

We can only imagine the love, care and  personal sacrifice that would come when the charity falls to the private sector. Health foundations, community care centers, and church affiliated programs already exist. There is human dignity in helping others through voluntary donations and time sacrifice. Those virtues are squelched  when government bureaucracies commandeer our private responsibilities, but they are magnified when people are free to rise  to the occasion.

It’s not hard to imagine the true good for Idaho families that would come from ending or severely cutting the broken Medicaid system. Families could keep more of their tax dollars, shop for the best private insurance and health care, and see lower health care costs. Free from the state burden of Medicaid, Idaho could reduce taxes by more than  $1 billion per year.  Carefully crafted, that might mean cutting all Idaho property taxes or individual income taxes in half, permanently.It could mean ending corporate income taxes. Or cutting sales taxes as well as eliminating the sales tax on groceries.

With such a boost in disposable income, combined with more economic freedom, families could be more charitable toward their communities and each other in providing personal assistance. In all this, government in Idaho would be limited to its proper role.  And, restoring the competitive, private health insurance market will lead to lower costs and better service than the insulated, monopolized, government insurance program. 

Those searching for the best healthcare alternatives won’t be shunted into government cookie-cutter programs ill suited-for innovation and choice. Reverting to private health insurance and healthcare, individuals are sure to have more options and more freedom than they would under federal/state health insurance programs. 

The Idaho Freedom Foundation sees virtue in private action, in human caring, and in the liberty and dignity coming from personal sacrifice. Impersonal and coercive government programs and bureaus cannot develop virtue, and a government bureau is a poor and expensive substitute for the personal touch of friends caring for friends. The world needs more George Bailey and less Medicaid.  Let’s give liberty and love a try for a change.

Ronald M. Nate, senior policy fellow at the Idaho Freedom Foundation, is an economics professor at BYU-Idaho, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Connecticut, and is a former state representative for Idaho Legislative District 34.
Ph. 208-403-3609

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MCO NEWS (KS)- Blue KC, partners will compete for $3.9B Kansas Medicaid contract

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: After about 2 years of delay drama, the MCO contract political game is starting back up.

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2023/06/27/blue-cross-blue-shield-kc-kansas-medicaid-contract.html

 
 

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Healthy Blue Kansas, a new entrant to the Kansas health care market, plans to compete for $3.9 billion in KanCare contracts later this year.

Russell Gray | KCBJ

After a multiyear delay, one of the Kansas City area’s biggest insurers is readying to make a run at a giant contract to manage the state of Kansas’ Medicaid program.

First announced in November 2021, Healthy Blue Kansas intends to bid this fall on $3.9 billion contracts that will determine which insurance companies oversee KanCare.

Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City, along with its partners Topeka-based Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas and Anthem Partnership Holding Co. LLC, a subsidiary of St. Louis-based Elevance Health Inc. (NYSE: ELV), hired Bryan Baier as the president of Healthy Blue Kansas in May.

“Bryan is recognized throughout the industry as a trusted leader who brings to Healthy Blue an extensive knowledge of Medicaid and the important role it plays in the lives and well-being of Kansans,” Dr. Greg Sweat, chief health officer at Blue KC, said in a May release. “Under Bryan’s leadership, Healthy Blue will build and expand on our commitment to working with community-based organizations across the state to improve the health of Kansas communities.”

 
 

 
 

Bryan Baier became president of Healthy Blue Kansas in May.

Healthy Blue Kansas

According to the release, Baier has more than 20 years of experience in regulatory, compliance and legislative advocacy with Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). Baier and Healthy Blue will be based in Topeka

“By partnering with the KanCare program, care providers and community-based organizations across the state, Healthy Blue is eager for the chance to coordinate the care and critical support services that will enable individuals to live healthy and productive lives,” Baier said in the release.

Aetna, Sunflower Health Plan and United HealthCare are the current contractors for the state’s Medicaid program, which was first privatized under former Gov. Sam Brownback in 2012. KanCare serves 415,000 individuals.

The request for proposals for KanCare are expected to be issued in September, a Elevance Health spokesman said. Once awarded, Gov. Laura Kelly‘s administration indicates that the contracts would take effect Jan. 1, 2025.

Elevance Health, formerly Anthem Inc., has approximately 50 workers living in the Kansas City area. It has more than 100,000 employees across the U.S.

As of June 2022, Blue KC had 1,632 employees — almost all of which worked in the immediate Kansas City area.

According to its website, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas has 1,610 employees. It serves all counties in Kansas except Johnson and Wyandotte, which Blue KC serves.

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OP/ED- Texas Was Right to Reject Medicaid Expansion

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: In which the heretic says the heretical.

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=14586

 
 

What does Texas understand that other states don’t?

With the recent addition of North Carolina and South Dakota, 40 states have now opted to expand Medicaid coverage. Texas legislators ignored the lure of “easy money” from Washington and nixed the idea again. Who’s right?

Texas Medical Association lobbyists told state legislators that expanding Medicaid eligibility would reduce the number of uninsured by half, producing $5.4 billion a year in federal matching funds in exchange for $650 million a year in new state spending.

It’s the same bill of goods that lobbyists in other states used to pitch Medicaid expansion. But the numbers don’t add up.

According to calculations by the Foundation for Government Accountability, expansion states forecast that their total Medicaid enrollment would increase by about 6.5 million. As of 2022, the actual increase stood at 16.7 million.

Medicaid costs have also significantly exceeded forecasts. In 2012, the Department of Health and Human Services predicted annual costs would average $4,000 per person. By 2018, the actual costs were 50% higher: $6,100 per person.

Medicaid expansion, encouraged by the Affordable Care Act, has helped reduce the percentage of uninsured, lowering it from 17.8% in 2010 to 10.9% by 2019. But supply didn’t rise to meet the increased demand.

Instead, the overall number of annual physician visits decreased from an average of 332 per 100 people in 2010 to 276 per 100 in 2018.

The small uptick in physician visits among low-income patients was offset by small reductions among the rest of the population.

Expanding Medicaid to the relatively healthy might make sense if it improved general health. But there is little evidence it does. In Oregon, for example, a first-of-its-kind controlled trial tracked individuals who applied for Medicaid through a lottery.

After two years, there was no discernible difference in the health of coverage winners and losers.

Health outcomes aside, the Texas medical establishment apparently was hoping the added $5.4 billion in Medicaid matching payments from Washington would improve the bottom line. That was wishful thinking.

Medicaid reimbursement rates are generally lower than both commercial insurance payments and total provider costs.

Research shows that lower-income working-age people often substitute Medicaid for existing private coverage, which typically requires out-of-pocket cash payments for co-pays and deductibles. This reduces providers’ overall compensation.

Below-cost payments may be manageable when Medicaid covers a relatively small portion of the population, but when Medicaid replaces private payers for large portions of the population, the combination of below-cost payments, reduced commercial insurance payments, and increased regulatory costs, invariably exceeds the savings providers realize from providing less uncompensated care.

A 2020 analysis of IRS filings for 2,253 nonprofit hospitals in expansion and nonexpansion states confirms this. The analysis showed that Medicaid expansion reduced reported uncompensated-care costs by an average of $1.11 million between 2012 and 2016.

But it also increased average losses, largely due to reduced income from commercial insurance and below-cost Medicaid reimbursements, by $1.63 million.

For Texas lawmakers, the fight over Medicaid expansion couldn’t have come at a more opportune time: As state health care providers were grappling with the extraordinary staffing and financial burdens caused by the federal government’s unprecedented tolerance of illegal immigration.

This certainly helped focus their attention, as did the testimony of Dr. Robert Trenschel, president and CEO of Arizona’s Yuma Regional Medical Center, who told Congress earlier this year that providing uncompensated care for migrants cost his hospital $26 million in 2022 (helping to produce an operating loss of $14.2 million, according to HMP Metrics.)

The influx of migrants also has been “crowding out Yuma’s residents, competing for beds in the emergency room or forcing delays in elective surgery,” according to news reports. Complicating the problem are persistent staffing shortages. Staff, not physical beds, is the binding constraint for most hospitals. Yuma Regional is licensed for 406 beds, but at the pay rates it can afford, it usually staffs only 250 to 270 beds.

Texas border hospitals face similar problems. Medicaid expansion would have only exacerbated them.

To their credit, Texas lawmakers saw through the false economics of Medicaid expansion.

Even if expanding eligibility cost “only” $650 million per year, they understood that the same $650 million could be used to defray some of the costs imposed on hospitals, physician practices, and Texas citizens by the unprecedented level of immigration.

Or it could be used to improve care for those already covered by Medicaid. Some 114,000 developmentally and intellectually disabled Texans enrolled in Texas Medicaid have spent years on waiting lists for home- and community-based care they were promised but never received.

Shouldn’t public money be used to meet existing needs such as these before it’s spent on new benefits for healthy, able-bodied adults?

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PROVIDERS- The Supreme Court Delivers an Unexpected Win for Medicaid Recipients

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: Yes, Medicaid bennies – you can still sue when providers do wrong stuff. Thanks, SCOTUS!

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/the-health-docket/105062

— An important accountability measure has been upheld

 
 

Andrew J. Twinamatsiko, JD, is an expert in health law and policy. Lawrence O. Gostin, JD, is a leading figure in national and global health law.

The Supreme Court’s decision in Health and Hospital Corporation v. Talevski , holding that beneficiaries of government entitlements can bring civil rights actions to vindicate their rights, is a major victory for millions of Americans who rely on publicly funded healthcare programs.

The justices refused to upend decades of precedent and allowed a nursing home resident’s family to sue an Indiana care home for abusing the resident. Talevski both vindicates the rights of vulnerable citizens and holds officials accountable. It affirms that Medicaid beneficiaries — some of the nation’s most vulnerable and politically powerless members — have a right to dignified care, while empowering them to sue government officials if their rights are not respected. With the recent uptick in state efforts to cut Medicaid, Talevski is a welcome assurance that the courts will remain available as a check on unfair and harmful state policies.

The Details of the Case

The case arose when Gorgi Talevski, a dementia patient at a nursing home owned by Health and Hospital Corporation of Marion County (HHC), suffered multiple abuses. HHC chemically restrained him using strong psychotropic drugs, sent him to a psychiatric facility without consulting his family, and subsequently arbitrarily discharged him. The Indiana State Department of Health failed to remedy the situation.

Talevski’s family brought a private lawsuit under 42 U.S. Code §1983opens in a new tab or window (Section 1983), a law enacted in 1871 that grants individuals the right to sue government officials and others acting “under color of state law” for civil rights violations. Section 1983 does not provide civil rights; it is a means to enforce civil rights that already exist, including Medicaid entitlements. Section 1983’s private right of action is a longstanding and important public accountability mechanism.

Talevski’s ordeal is not surprising. Abuses in nursing homes are commonopens in a new tab or window. Indeed, Congress enacted the Federal Nursing Home Reform Act (FNHRA) in 1987 to address the widespread abuse of residents. FNHRA establishes standards and oversight of nursing homes, including a residents’ bill of rights. FNHRA explicitly states that residents have a right to be free from physical and chemical restraints, and prohibits arbitrary discharge of residents.

Surprisingly, the Supreme Court agreed to hear this case even though there is longstanding precedent for bringing Section 1983 claims and there was unanimity among the circuit courts on the issue. Stakeholders were concerned that a conservative supermajority would use the case to overrule decades of precedent and undermine Medicaid.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, writing for the Court, held that FNHRA unambiguously creates rights that can be vindicated using Section 1983. Jackson noted FNHRA uses “rights-creating language” that explicitly describes freedom from use of unnecessary restraints and the pre-discharge notice requirements as rights to which residents are entitled. What’s more, FNHRA requires nursing homes to respect residents’ rights, which are enforceable by individual residents. The Court rejected HHC’s argument that Congress cannot create rights enforceable under Section 1983 using its spending power, describing HHC’s arguments as “perplexing,” and grounded in “ambiguous historical evidence.”

In his dissent, Justice Clarence Thomas cited federalism concerns that suffused the Court’s reasoning in Dobbs v. Jacksonopens in a new tab or window — ending the right to an abortion — and NFIB v. Sebeliusopens in a new tab or window — striking down the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) Medicaid expansion requirement — to argue that Spending Clause programs do not grant individual rights. Thus, Thomas would overrule the Court’s established precedents that have governed enforcement of government programs for half a century. Overruling precedent would severely curtail not only Medicaid but also a host of much needed entitlement programs such as the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Curtailing these programs would severely affect marginalized and underserved communities who already bear health burdens at a disproportionately higher rate, and thus exacerbate health disparities.

Health Implications and Takeaways

The Talevski decision is a significant victory for Medicaid beneficiaries as it keeps open the courts’ doors for vindication of federally conferred rights. The Medicaid program is vast, benefiting about 1.7 millionopens in a new tab or window nursing home residents. With at least 15,000 nursing homes across the nation, it is very difficult for the federal and state governments to maintain meaningful oversight to ensure that vulnerable members of society are receiving high quality, dignified care. The only enforcement tool the federal government has for Medicaid violations is to withhold funding, which rarely occurs.

By rebuffing HHC’s “attempts to sow renewed doubts about Section 1983’s” availability to enforce rights under the Spending Clause, the Court preserved an important accountability arrow in the Medicaid quiver. The Court’s rejection of a limited interpretation of the Spending Clause affirms a long-held principle that Medicaid benefits and other entitlements are rights, not privileges that states can take away willy-nilly. Enforcing these rights under Section 1983 gives individuals not only access to the courts but also a suite of remedies, such as injunctions, damages, and attorneys’ fees.

From a health equity standpoint — especially considering the continued worsening of health disparitiesopens in a new tab or window during the COVID-19 pandemic and states moving to purgeopens in a new tab or window their Medicaid rollsopens in a new tab or window — the Talevski decision preserves the important role Medicaid plays in closing health gaps. Since its enactment in 1965, Medicaid has been an indispensable source of access to healthcare for millions of Americansopens in a new tab or window. With the expansion of Medicaid under the ACA, Medicaid’s roleopens in a new tab or window in addressing health disparities cannot be overstated. Various vulnerable groups, comprising a disproportionate number of racial and ethnic minoritiesopens in a new tab or window, rely on Medicaid for their medical needsopens in a new tab or window, such as early screening and preventive services, family planning, inpatient and outpatient hospital care, prescription drugs, and extended institutional care for the elderly.

While the Talevski case centered around only two rights for nursing home residents, the Supreme Court’s ruling broadly encompasses a multitude of rights and welfare programs. In assuring that vulnerable individuals may rely on Section 1983, the Talevski decision will go a long way to preserve people’s rights to timely enrollment, comprehensive coverage, and eligibility determination.

Andrew Twinamatsiko, JD,opens in a new tab or window is an associate director of the Health Policy and the Law Initiative at the O’Neill Institute. Lawrence O. Gostin, JD,opens in a new tab or window is University Professor, Georgetown University’s highest academic rank, where he directs the O’Neill Institute for National & Global Health Law. He is also director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National & Global Health Law. He is the author of the book, Global Health Security: A Blueprint for the Futureopens in a new tab or window.

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PHE- Biden administration urges states to slow down on dropping people from Medicaid

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: Please stop following the new rules and guidance we gave you on how to restart following the old rules. Or at least do it with less gusto.

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.13abc.com/2023/06/13/biden-administration-urges-states-slow-down-dropping-people-medicaid/

 
 

FILE – Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra speaks during a meeting with a task force on reproductive health care access in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, April 12, 2023, in Washington. The Biden administration on Monday, June 12, urged states to slow down their purge of Medicaid rolls, citing concerns that large numbers of lower-income people are losing health care coverage because of administrative reasons. “I am deeply concerned with the number of people unnecessarily losing coverage, especially those who appear to have lost coverage for avoidable reasons that State Medicaid offices have the power to prevent or mitigate,” Becerra wrote in a letter Monday to governors. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)(AP)

By The Associated Press and DAVID A. LIEB

Published: Jun. 12, 2023 at 9:22 PM CDT

 
 

EFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — The Biden administration on Monday urged states to slow down their purge of Medicaid rolls, citing concerns that large numbers of lower-income people are losing health care coverage due to administrative reasons.The nation’s Medicaid rolls swelled during the coronavirus pandemic as states were prohibited from ending people’s coverage. But that came to a halt in April, and states now must re-evaluate recipients’ eligibility — just as they had been regularly required to do before the pandemic.

In some states, about half of those whose Medicaid renewal cases were decided in April or May have lost their coverage, according to data submitted to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and obtained by The Associated Press. The primary cause is what CMS describes as “procedural reasons,” such as the failure to return forms.

“I am deeply concerned with the number of people unnecessarily losing coverage, especially those who appear to have lost coverage for avoidable reasons that State Medicaid offices have the power to prevent or mitigate,” Health and Human Services Secretary Secretary Xavier Becerra wrote in a letter Monday to governors.

Instead of immediately dropping people who haven’t responded by a deadline, federal officials are encouraging state Medicaid agencies to delay procedural terminations for one month while conducting additional targeted outreach to Medicaid recipients. Among other things, they’re also encouraging states to allow providers of managed health care plans to help people submit Medicaid renewal forms.

Nobody “should lose coverage simply because they changed addresses, didn’t receive a form, or didn’t have enough information about the renewal process,” ecerra said in a statement.

States are moving at different paces to conduct Medicaid eligibility determinations. Some haven’t dropped anyone from their rolls yet while others already have removed tens of thousands of people.

Among 18 states that reported preliminary data to CMS, about 45% of those whose renewals were due in April kept their Medicaid coverage, about 31% lost coverage and about 24% were still being processed. Of those that lost coverage, 4-out-of-5 were for procedural reasons, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

In Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, New Hampshire and Oklahoma, about half or more of those whose eligibility cases were completed in April or May lost their Medicaid coverage, according data reviewed by the AP. Those figures may appear high because some states frontloaded the process, starting with people already deemed unlikely to remain eligible.

CMS officials have specifically highlighted concerns about Arkansas, which has dropped well over 100,000 Medicaid recipients, mostly for not returning renewal forms or requested information.

Arkansas officials said they are following a timeline under a 2021 law that requires the state to complete its redeterminations within six months of the end of the public health emergency. They said Medicaid recipients receive multiple notices — as well as texts, emails and phone calls, when possible — before being dropped. Some people probably don’t respond because they know they are no longer eligible, the state Department of Human Services said.

Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has dismissed criticism of the state’s redetermination process, saying Arkansas is merely getting the program back to its pre-pandemic coverage intentions.

But health care advocates said it’s particularly concerning when states have large numbers of people removed from Medicaid for not responding to re-enrollment notices.

“People who are procedurally disenrolled often are not going to realize they’ve lost coverage until they show up for a medical appointment or they go to fill their prescription and are told you no longer have insurance coverage,” said Allie Gardner, a senior research associate at the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families.

__

Associated Press writer Andrew DeMillo contributed from Little Rock, Arkansas.

Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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From <https://www.13abc.com/2023/06/13/biden-administration-urges-states-slow-down-dropping-people-medicaid/>

 
 

 
 

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PROVIDERS (KY)- Beshear increases Medicaid reimbursement rates for home and community-based services and long-term care facilities

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: BlueGrass Nursing Homes will get $13M more for services already delivered in 2023 under lower rates; AND will get $100M for services in the next FY under the new rates. Where do I sign up for this deal?

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.somerset-kentucky.com/kentucky/beshear-increases-medicaid-reimbursement-rates-for-home-and-community-based-services-and-long-term-care/article_c7e7bbb4-0ac7-11ee-a55f-af46e0f6dfbf.html

 
 

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear sits for an interview in Versailles, Ky., Wednesday, May 17, 2023.

AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley

Gov. Andy Beshear has raised Medicaid reimbursement rates for home and community-based services and long-term-care facilities to help them deal with inflation, workforce shortages and the effects of Covid-19.

“We have a duty to make sure those who need in-home care, community-based care and long-term care get the services they need and the services they deserve,” Beshear said at his weekly news conference Thursday. “This increase will provide some interim financial relief for organizations that take care of our parents and our grandparents. And right now they need our help, and we need to be there for them.”

Most of the money for the increase will come from the federal government, which funds about 70 percent of traditional Medicaid spending. The state share “is able to fit within our current appropriated budget without the need for additional state funds,” said Susan Dunlap, spokeswoman for the Cabinet for Health and Family Services. “The current Medicaid spending trends allow the cabinet access to funds to increase the Medicaid rate.”

Dunlap noted that the cabinet “is required to adjust price-based nursing facility rates for inflation every July 1. During the budget process, the cabinet accounts for an inflationary increase in our projections for the inflationary adjustment.”

The nursing-home adjustments are retroactive, to make up for underestimated inflationary increases that were provided in the last three years, Beshear said. This will result in $99.6 million more for nursing homes in the next fiscal year, which ends June 30, 2024. The state’s share will be $18.9 million.

The adjustment for home and community-based services will be for services that were delivered from Jan. 1, 2022, to May 1, 2023, at an additional cost of $13 million, according to a news release.

The main lobbying group for nursing homes and assisted-living facilities told Kentucky Health News that it is expecting an overall adjustment of about 8 percent, and that it will vary from facility to facility.

Betsy Johnson, president of the Kentucky Association of Health Care Facilities and Kentucky Center for Assisted Living, praised the governor’s action, calling it “welcome relief” for struggling long-term care facilities that have been sounding the alarm about the skyrocketing costs required to keep their residents and patients safe and healthy.

“We are grateful for Gov. Beshear and his administration,” Johnson said. “The pandemic had devastating effects and worsened the staffing crisis we were already facing. This funding will be paramount to providing quality care to residents and patients as well as building the foundation for a brighter future.”

John Muller, chief operating officer for Carespring Healthcare Management in Northern Kentucky, thanked Beshear and his team at the news conference. Muller is also a KAHCF board member.

“Nursing facilities were on the front lines of the Covid pandemic. The last number of years have been very, very difficult,” Muller said. “And as we are coming out of the pandemic, the aftershock is the workforce challenges that we’re facing. Nursing facilities are lagging far behind on catching up in the workforce. These much-needed funds will go a long way for the residents we serve . . . as well as the team members we need to retain and the new ones we need to recruit.”

David McKenzie, administrator and owner of The Jordan Center in Louisa, conveyed an urgent need for these increased funds in a letter to Health and Family Services Secretary Eric Friedlander on March 28,

McKenzie painted a picture of his facility’s dire financial situation and asked for a “funding bridge” to allow nursing homes to survive until July 1, 2024, when their rates are scheduled to be recalculated.

“Our facility will not make it if we don’t receive a funding bridge July 1, 2023,” he wrote. “We have never seen price increases like this in our 49 years of business! In February 2022, we had to close half of our facility because we only had enough staff to operate 60 beds and maintain our 5-star staffing rating.”

Emily Webber, KAHCF director of communications, said the additional funding will go a long way to help pay for supplies, operational costs and staffing, noting that long-term care facilities are still one of the health-care sectors that have not recovered from the staffing shortages caused by the pandemic.

Beshear has also committed to rebasing the Medicaid rate effective July 1, 2024, but that would require appropriations from the General Assembly next year, and Beshear’s term will end late this year unless the voters given him a second four-year term in the Nov. 7 election.

“We’re dealing with an election. We’re dealing with a budget session. So there are lots of things for us to address,” Johnson said. “But as you just stated, right now, where it stands, we understand that the current administration and the Kentucky legislature are very sympathetic to our challenges and we believe that we can all work together so that this money will be appropriated.”

Johnson said her members are “thrilled” because they have not seen a Medicaid raise since 2008 and are now operating in a completely different world.

“This funding is a good first step toward getting us back on our feet,” she said, adding later, “If you ask any one of our member providers, when we say, ‘Oh, post-pandemic world or post-Covid,’ they will look you in the eye and say, ‘Betsy, we’re still in it’ because the struggles are real. It has forever changed the way they operate and the staff that they need. It’s very, very important that we should all, as Kentuckians, be invested in this taking care of our elderly, and our most vulnerable citizens.”

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PHE- Fiscal Implications for Medicaid of Enhanced Federal Funding and Continuous Enrollment

MM Curator summary

The article below has been highlighted and summarized by our research team. It is provided here for member convenience as part of our Curator service.

 
 

[MM Curator Summary]: The PHE added about $117B in fed money via the increased FMAP. Did it go to clear waiting lists? Did it go to increase provider rates? Or maybe it went to ACA-ish rate cells? With the witchcraft that is Medicaid math- We may never know (and we seem to like it that way).

 
 

 
 

Clipped from: https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/fiscal-implications-for-medicaid-of-enhanced-federal-funding-and-continuous-enrollment/

For a three-year period, states provided continuous enrollment in Medicaid in exchange for an increase in the percentage of Medicaid spending that is paid for by the federal government (the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage or “FMAP”). A recent KFF analysis estimated that over 23 million people gained Medicaid coverage during the continuous enrollment period. Beginning April 1, 2023, states could begin disenrolling individuals from Medicaid, but phased-down federal matching funds will be available through the end of the year if states comply with certain rules. While there remains a great deal of uncertainty as to how Medicaid enrollment will change during the unwinding, the end of the Medicaid continuous enrollment provision and enhanced FMAP are expected to have a significant impact on Medicaid enrollment and spending. This brief examines how Medicaid spending changed during the continuous enrollment period and estimates the amount of enhanced federal funding states received during the continuous enrollment period. Key findings include:

  • State spending dipped below pre-pandemic levels even as Medicaid enrollment increased by 23 million during the continuous enrollment period. With the substantial enrollment growth, total spending increased, including significant increases in federal Medicaid spending due to the enhanced FMAP.
  • We estimate states received over $117 billion from the increased FMAP during the continuous enrollment period, with enhanced federal funds comprising a larger share of total Medicaid spending in states that had not adopted Medicaid expansion through the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
  • Although the magnitude is uncertain, significant decreases in Medicaid enrollment are expected during the unwinding of the continuous enrollment provision, which will result in lower Medicaid spending. Even with lower enrollment, state spending will likely increase as the enhanced FMAP expires.
  • The phase down of the enhanced FMAP was designed to provide continued financial support to states during the unwinding process and to mitigate sharp increases in state Medicaid spending. How much state Medicaid spending increases as the enhanced FMAP phases down and is ultimately eliminated next year will depend on how many and how quickly people are disenrolled, how many new people come on to Medicaid, and how spending per person in the Medicaid program will change.

What was the purpose of the enhanced federal Medicaid match rate?

States received a 6.2 percentage point FMAP increase in exchange for keeping individuals continuously enrolled during the pandemic as authorized by the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA). The increased FMAP was retroactive to January 1, 2020 and generally applied to Medicaid spending that would otherwise reimbursed at the state’s regular FMAP. The enhanced federal matching funds do not apply to administrative expenses or to Medicaid spending that is already subject to an increased match, including spending for ACA expansion adults (the FMAP is 90% for adults eligible through expansion). The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 (CAA) delinked the continuous enrollment provision from the public health emergency (PHE), ending continuous enrollment on March 31, 2023. The CAA also phases down the enhanced federal Medicaid matching funds through December 2023, with the increased FMAP decreasing to 5 percentage points from April to June 2023, 2.5 percentage points from June to September 2023, and 1.5 percentage points from October to December 2023.

The federal funding from the enhanced FMAP was designed to support the costs of increased Medicaid enrollment and provide fiscal relief to states beyond the costs of enrollment growth. During economic downturns, enrollment in Medicaid grows, increasing state Medicaid costs while state tax revenues are declining. Congress enacted legislation to temporarily increase the federal share of Medicaid during the last two economic downturns prior to the pandemic. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, states were projecting large revenue declines, but the enhanced FMAP provided new federal funding to states quickly by using an existing federal funding mechanism. Enhanced federal funding supported state Medicaid programs and helped free up state funds for other purposes including mitigating the need for widespread spending cuts on other services and filling gaps in state budget shortfalls.

How did Medicaid spending change during the pandemic?

State spending on Medicaid dipped below pre-pandemic levels even as enrollment in Medicaid increased by 23 million during the continuous enrollment period (Figure 1). The reduction in state spending reflected a sharp drop from $231 billion in 2019 to $214 billion in FY 2020, accompanied by an increase in federal spending of nearly $50 billion (from $393 billion to $444 billion). After 2020, state spending remained relatively stable while federal spending continued to increase due to the enhanced FMAP and total spending increased in conjunction with rising enrollment. State spending remained below 2019 levels in both expansion (defined as those having implemented Medicaid expansion as of 10/1/2021) and non-expansion states through the end of FY 2022. In the first six months of FY 2023—before the end of the continuous enrollment provision—we find that total and federal spending continued to increase while state spending returned to levels similar to the first two quarters of 2019. We expect spending and enrollment levels for the second half of 2023 to change, reflecting the end of the continuous enrollment period.

How much did states receive in enhanced federal funding during the continuous enrollment period?

During the continuous enrollment period, we estimate that states received over $117 billion in funding from the increased FMAP, with non-expansion states receiving a disproportionate share (Figure 2 and Appendix Table 1). Non-expansion states received 27% of the enhanced funding despite accounting for only 22% of all Medicaid spending because the enhanced FMAP does not apply to spending for people eligible through an ACA expansion. Across all states, the $117 billion in additional funding comprised an estimated 5% of total Medicaid spending and 7% of federal Medicaid spending during the continuous enrollment period (January 2020 through March 2023).

What might happen to Medicaid spending during the unwinding?

Although the size of the effects are quite uncertain, significant decreases in Medicaid enrollment are expected during the 14-month period in which states unwind the continuous enrollment period. KFF estimates that nationally Medicaid enrollment will decrease by 18% (17 million people) between March 2023 and May 2024 (based on a recent survey of states), but in practice, rates of enrollment decline will vary across states, depending on states’ approaches to unwinding. Early data from states shows substantial variation in disenrollment rates. While state Medicaid agencies report enrollment changes as the most significant factor driving changes in total Medicaid spending, they also note that factors such provider payment rate increases were putting upward pressure on spending. Overall, total Medicaid spending could decrease during the unwinding if the effects of enrollment losses are larger than the effects of other factors such as those.

Even with declining enrollment, state spending on Medicaid will likely increase as the enhanced FMAP expires. States are expecting the end of the enhanced FMAP to shift the state and federal spending shares, as has been the case in previous economic downturns when an enhanced FMAP expired. CBO estimates that federal spending will decrease by about 9% from FY 2023 to FY 2024. While states received substantial enhanced federal funding of $117 billion during the continuous enrollment period, they will likely see increases in state Medicaid spending as the enhanced federal matching funds expire at the end of the year.

The phase down of the enhanced FMAP was designed to provide continued financial support to states during the unwinding process and to mitigate sharp increases in state Medicaid spending. Before the CAA delinked the continuous enrollment provision and the enhanced FMAP from the PHE, the enhanced FMAP was set to expire at the end of the quarter when the PHE expired. The gradual phase-out of the FMAP through December 2023 recognizes that it will take states time to unwind the continuous enrollment provision and conduct redeterminations for all Medicaid enrollees. To be eligible for the enhanced match, states must meet certain eligibility, renewal, and reporting requirements. Recently, in a letter to CMS, Democratic lawmakers reiterated these beneficiary protections as well as CMS enforcement tools that were made available in the CAA, and CMS, in a letter to state governors, reiterated that states must comply with federal requirements to continue to draw down enhanced federal funds. The amount of the enhanced funding available to states during the unwinding will be smaller relative to the continuous-enrollment period, but it will still help mitigate the shift in funding from the federal government back to the states. As the enhanced federal funding is phased out and ultimately eliminated, the size of the increase in state Medicaid spending will depend on changes in total spending growth, which in turn will reflect how quickly people are disenrolled, how many new people come on to Medicaid, and how spending per person in the Medicaid program will change. These enrollment and spending changes will vary by state.

Appendix

Methods

Data: This analysis uses the Medicaid CMS-64 new adult group expenditure data collected through MBES (CMS-64 data), the 2019 T-MSIS Research Identifiable Demographic-Eligibility and Claims Files (T-MSIS data), the May 2023 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates of federal Medicaid spending per enrollee, and enrollment estimates from a prior KFF analysis.

Overview of Approach: To estimate total, federal, and state Medicaid spending as well as the enhanced federal funding states received from the increased FMAP, we:

  • Use estimates of Medicaid enrollment by eligibility group during the continuous enrollment period, which are described in the prior analysis,
  • Use actual total Medicaid expenditure data from CMS-64 and the ratio of per enrollee spending by eligibility group from T-MSIS to estimate per enrollee spending by eligibility group for FY 2019 – FY 2022,
  • Estimate spending per enrollee for FY 2023 by growing the previous year’s per enrollee spending for each eligibility group based on the CBO’s projected Medicaid spending per enrollee,
  • Calculate total, federal, and state spending during the pandemic based on a state’s actual FMAP, and
  • Compare to an estimate of what state spending would have been without the FMAP increase to estimate enhanced federal funding.

Definitions and Limitations: While very similar at a national level, our estimates of the enhanced federal funding received over the period do not match those posted by the Medicaid CMS-64 FFCRA Increased FMAP Expenditure reports. There are a few reasons for this:

  • We estimate total additional federal funds for the continuous enrollment period (through March 2023), while the FFCRA expenditure reports only showed spending through June 2022 as of May 2023, when the analysis was completed.
  • Our estimates reflect an accrual basis of accounting—which means we estimate all spending states incurred each quarter. In practice, states have two years following the date a service was rendered to report their spending, so some spending so the FFRCA reports will not show complete spending until two years after the enhanced FMAP ends. If the FFCRA expenditure reports show spending when it is paid from the federal government to the states—rather than when states incurred the costs, the timing of federal payments will be different from what we have estimated.
  • Our model assumes the 6.2 percentage point FMAP increase applies to all non-administrative Medicaid spending for enrollees that are not ACA expansion enrollees. While they usually account for only a small share of overall spending, we do not make additional exclusions for the other services that are matched at a higher rate, which include family planning, services received through an Indian Health Services facility, expenditures for Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in the “Qualifying Individuals” program, and home health services that are matched at a 90% rate.

We provide more detail about each step in the process below.

1. Estimate Medicaid enrollment by eligibility group.

  • For enrollment by eligibility group through the end of the continuous enrollment period, we use estimates from a previous KFF analysis.

2. Prepare CMS-64 expenditure data and estimate spending per enrollee by eligibility group for FY 2019 – FY 2022 at the state level.

  • First, we pull quarterly data from the Medicaid CMS-64 New Adults Group Expenditure Data collected through MBES and aggregate total and federal spending by state for enrollees in the ACA expansion group and for all other Medicaid enrollees from FY 2019 – FY 2022. Spending includes all medical assistance expenditures.
  • Data for FY 2022 was only available for three of the four quarters (through June 2022). We assume those expenditures constitute 75% of FY 2022 spending to estimate expenditures for the full year.
  • We calculate spending per enrollee for each FY for the ACA expansion group and all other enrollees by dividing the group’s total spending by the enrollment in September of that year.
  • We use the 2019 T-MSIS claims data to estimate spending per enrollee for the non-expansion enrollees. We calculate the ratio of spending per enrollees for each specific eligibility group to spending per enrollee for all non-expansion enrollees. We apply these ratios to the spending per enrollee from the CMS-64 data for all non-expansion enrollees to estimate spending per enrollee for each eligibility group.
  • We scale state-level spending per enrollee by eligibility group estimates so that multiplying enrollment by spending per enrollee equals the total spending in each state from the CMS 64 in FY 2019 – FY 2022.

3. Estimate FY 2023 spending per enrollee. We only have full-year, detailed administrative expenditure data through June 2022, so we estimated expenditures for FY 2023.

  • We use the CBO’s May 2023 projections of average federal spending on benefit payments per enrollee by eligibility group and their assumed FMAPs to estimate average total spending per enrollee by eligibility group for FY 2022 and FY 2023.
  • We calculate the growth in total spending per enrollee from FY 2022 to FY 2023 by eligibility group and apply the 2023 growth rates to our 2022 estimated spending per enrollee, resulting in estimated spending per enrollee by eligibility group for 2023.
  • For states that newly expanded Medicaid, we estimated spending per enrollee for the new group by multiplying that state’s spending per enrollee for their non-expansion adults by the ratio of spending per expansion enrollee to non-expansion enrollee in all other states.

4. Calculate total, federal, and state Medicaid spending during the pandemic with the enhanced FMAP.

  • For each FY, we estimate total Medicaid spending by multiplying spending per enrollee by enrollment. We group spending into two groups: spending on ACA expansion group and spending for all other Medicaid enrollees.
  • We estimate the FMAPs as the percentage of total spending that is federal spending in the CMS-64. We assume the FY 2022 FMAP applies for the rest of the continuous enrollment period, which is the first six months of FY 2023.

5.  Estimate enhanced federal funding.

  • We estimate states’ spending without the enhanced FMAP by subtracting 6.2 percentage points from each state’s FMAP for non-expansion spending.
  • Total spending from the enhanced FMAP is estimated to be the difference between states’ actual spending and the spending we estimated without the enhanced FMAP.
  • The American Rescue Plan Act included a 5-percentage point increase in the FMAP for states to adopt an ACA Medicaid expansion. For the states using this option during the continuous enrollment period (Missouri and Oklahoma), we subtracted the enhanced federal funding from that provision from state spending when calculating spending from the continuous enrollment enhanced FMAP.