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Menges Group 5 Slides Series – Monthly COVID Deaths and Cases by State

The Menges Group puts out these great analyses and insights each month. And is kind enough to let us repost them for the MM audience. Check out to learn more about the work they do. 

Attached is 38th special edition of the COVID 5 Slide Series, and the final edition of CY2020.  The progression of the pandemic throughout the year has been devastating, including the most recent weeks and days as reported herein.  Key findings from this edition, which tabulates monthly cases and deaths by state, are summarized below:

  • We expect that more COVID deaths will occur in December than in any prior month in the US overall and in 33 states.  December’s new COVID cases are at record highs nationally and in 35 states.
  • The 3,400 new COVID deaths reported on December 16, are nearly 200 above the next-highest day the US has experienced to date.
  • One positive development is that the percentage of monthly new cases resulting in death is far lower in more recent months (approximately 1%) than was the case during April and May (approximately 6%).
  • Multiple points of research, including data we present herein, compellingly demonstrate that overall deaths in the USA during 2020 are far higher than occurred during 2019. 

Thanks for your interest in our Series and for your many kind and guiding comments.  Please let us know if you’d like to be added to (or removed from) our distribution list, and wish you a very happy New Year!

COVID Case Progression; Death Rates and Hot Spots

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Menges Group 5 Slide Series: State-Level Analyses of COVID Cases and Deaths Over the Course of the Pandemic


This edition of our 5 Slide Series provides state level analyses of monthly new cases and deaths over the course of the pandemic. Nationally, new cases and deaths decreased in September as compared to August, but many states experienced their peak in September. The percentage of confirmed cases in the US represented just 2.2% of the entire population, and 2.9% of these cases resulted in death.

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Menges Group 5 Slide Series: New COVID Test, Case, and Death Dynamics, August 1 – 15 versus September 1 – 15

This edition of the 5 Slide Series tabulates new COVID tests, cases, and deaths per 100,000 population at a state level to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted September 1- 15 versus August 1 – 15. Nationally, trends have mostly moved in a favorable direction. During the first half of September relative to the first half of August, confirmed cases and deaths have decreased by more than 20%, and positive tests as a percent of all administered tests during each timeframe have decreased from 7.1% to 5.2%. However, several states have trended in an adverse direction and reported an increase in new cases, deaths, and positive tests September 1 – 15 versus August 1 – 15.

5 Slide Series_New COVID Tests, Cases, and Deaths_Sept 18

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Menges Group 5 Slide Series: Recent COVID-19 Death Rate Trends at State and County Levels

Today’s edition of the 5 Slide Series investigates recent COVID-19 death trends in the United States at both state and county levels. Nationally, the number of new COVID deaths decreased by 19% September 3 – 10 as compared to the previous week (August 27 – September 3). Despite this national decrease, five states (Hawaii, West Virginia, Arkansas, Montana, and Tennessee) reported that more than 15% of their cumulative COVID deaths occurred during the past two weeks. We also identified counties with more than 100,000 residents that reported the largest per capita death rates as of September 10 and over the past week.

5 Slide Series_Assessment of Recent State COVID Deaths_Sept 14